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Winning % for 2012-2013 Season?

Posted by T_Bo_Max 
Winning % for 2012-2013 Season?
April 25, 2012 07:22PM
We began to hijack Trackin01's excellent "TOP 10 projects..." thread, so I decided to move this topic to its own thread. We are tossing around the idea of a winning % stat for next season. So far there have been some good questions. Here's what was already said. Tell us what you think.

T_Bo_Max Wrote:
> One stat I would like to see posted on the
> standings page is "winning %". What is it you
> ask? It is simply the average percentage of your
> opponents you beat each event.
> To make demonstration easier, I will use round
> numbers.
> Player A plays four tournaments and finishes as
> follows:
> 10th of 50. Player A defeated 80% of the field,
> so winning %= 80
> 5th of 100. Winning%=95%
> 20th of 25. Winning%=20%. (Rough day of golf)
> 10th of 100. Winning%=90%
> To get a winning percentage average, add W% of all
> rounds played and divide by total number of rounds
> played:
> 80+95+20+90=285. 285/4=71.25%
> Player A's average winning percentage is 71.25%
> To me this is a much clearer way to calculate
> performance. The current "score" feature is cool,
> but it gives a lot more weight to players who play
> big tourneys than small ones. I pretty much only
> play bigger tourneys, so my score is really
> inflated.
> If scores are already in an Excel format, this
> stat is nothing to plug in. Just something I'd
> like to see.

Trackin01 Wrote:
> Mr. Browning-
> I like this idea you came up with. I am a numbers
> guys and like seeing things like that. Gives me a
> chance to see how I am doing on average. I do
> wonder about some thing though. Lets say you have
> player who compete in multiple divisions. Example:
> Pro Grandmaster who competes in Master and Open
> occasionally. Would you want those calculations
> added to the average of his over all performance?
> Or do you have a percentage in each division he
> competes in?
> Example: On average he beats 90% of the field in
> Grandmasters, 80% of Masters, and 65% of Open Men.
> I like those stats as well.
> Keeping this in an excel document wouldn't be
> hard, but applying it to the stats database might
> be another questions. Maybe a Bryan Moon job.
> Again, you have my VOTE! Now you have me wanting
> to go check my stats out! lol

T_Bo_Max Wrote:
> I would think your winning % would be kept
> separate for each division. Some people want
> ratings some don't. The winning percentage would
> be a relatively simple way to help you make a
> decision about whether or not it's time to move up
> or move down. If you have a winning % in the
> 90's, you might want to consider moving up. If
> you have a winning percentage less than 10 in
> advanced, you may want to move down.
> Either way, its a fun stat to look at. In the
> next few days I will try to find the time to
> calculate and compare my winning % vs. my score
> average. Both are fun to look at. I'm kind of an
> Excel guru myself, so I would be willing to help
> with this as needed. Someone earlier in this
> thread spoke of a standardized Excel spreadsheet
> for reporting. I do not know if that's in use,
> but a workbook could be created to add all
> tournament results to, and you could simply add
> all incoming results to a sheet from that
> workbook.
> I think we are not alone in believing this would
> be a fun stat to keep up with for next season.

discdawg Wrote:
> I think that's a great idea. I say roll with it -
> separate stat for each division. That way if you
> try to move up or down in different tournaments
> (in Am) you could see scoring for a single player
> over several divisions if they compete in them,
> say: average 80% in intermediate, 50% in advance,
> and 20% in pro. I think it'd also be cool if
> player and tournament stats could be exported to
> excel so people could tinker with the data and
> find other new ideas.

Derrick Lambert Wrote:
> The winning percentile would be affected by how
> large the tourneys are and how well the players
> are playing around you. You could be a pro and
> have shot 2 1000 rated rounds but the others got
> really hot and shot over 1000 rated and beat you.
> Your winning percentile for that tourney would be
> 0% when you actually did well. Another thing, if
> you are only 1 of 2 pros that show up and you get
> 2nd, will your winning percentile be 0% for that
> tourney?

Tommy Browning
Re: Winning % for 2012-2013 Season?
April 25, 2012 07:40PM
Derrick, these are good questions. Perhaps we could weight the outcome. Results from larger events will factor more heavily into the winning percentage. Maybe there should be a minimum number of competitors for the score to get averaged in. Or maybe you can drop each players bottom two scores for the season.

I know its possible to have a small field, but does it happen frequently? I'm not trying to be critical. I am just curious if this scenario plays out very often. Does it happen often enough to merit a concern that this will skew data?

As far as the scenario with ratings go, that could be an issue with smaller fields. The winning % stat is not a rating. It simply tells you how many competitors you defeat in tournament play on average. If you are in an event with only one competitor and that competitor shoots the round of his life, I guess that is just unlucky. There is a certain amount of luck in every tourney when it comes down to it. While there is less luck involved for folks playing pro-level golf, there is still a degree of luck involved.

Winning % will be for entertainment purposes only. It is designed to give players another numerical way to track their performance that is not dependent on tournament size. While the score stat is nice, it is definitely tilted toward players who play mostly large tournaments. Mobile residents enjoy larger tournaments, so a middle of the road Mobile player like myself will have a better score than someone of the same skill level who plays in a smaller disc golf community with smaller tournaments.
Re: Winning % for 2012-2013 Season?
April 26, 2012 03:27PM
The good thing about a percentage is that it usually levels out over several tournaments. I think weighting it by number of competitors is not necessary, as you can look at points and place if that is the concern. There are a couple of potential checks you could put in: 1) Not include the tournament in the percentage calculation if it is below X number of player, or 2) Not calculate the percentage until the player has competed in X number of tournaments. However, I don't think either of those are necessary. People have bad rounds. That plays into the percentage. People have great rounds. Those all play into the percentage.
Re: Winning % for 2012-2013 Season?
April 26, 2012 03:41PM
I say go with it no matter long as something changes in SN, it will give some of us hope.
Re: Winning % for 2012-2013 Season?
May 01, 2012 12:38PM
I think winning percentages would be a good alternative to ratings. Plus it could be used to deter bagging. Somebody above mentioned that you wouldn't have an average percentage until you play a certain number of tournaments (maybe five). Then let's say that the percentages reset every season. There could be a rule that once your average percentage tops a certain amount (85%?), you move up to the next division. The same would go for moving down (15%?).

Justin Dyess

Overdrive Disc Golf
We buy and sell new and used discs. Check out our website.
Re: Winning % for 2012-2013 Season?
July 16, 2012 10:42PM
Has anyone else given thought to the winning percentage idea? Its not a rating, but it is a cool stat that is already built into the results.

I don't think it will eliminate bagging. Its not even designed for such a purpose. Just a fun stat. The only thing that will eliminate bagging is the restructuring of prize distribution for AM divisions (Advanced and Intermediate).
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